# 4.4 Model phenomena and processes and simulate systems to understand and evaluate potential outcomes 建立模型、模拟系统, 来理解和评估可能的结果
Students at all grade levels should be able to represent patterns, processes, or phenomena. With guidance, young students can draw pictures to describe a simple pattern, such as sunrise and sunset, or show the stages in a process, such as brushing your teeth. They can also create an animation to model a phenomenon, such as evaporation. As they progress, students should understand that computers can model real-world phenomena, and they should use existing computer simulations to learn about real-world systems. For example, they may use a preprogrammed model to explore how parameters affect a system, such as how rapidly a disease spreads. Older students should model phenomena as systems, with rules governing the interactions within the system. Students should analyze and evaluate these models against real-world observations. For example, students might create a simple producer–consumer ecosystem model using a programming tool. Eventually, they could progress to creating more complex and realistic interactions between species, such as predation, competition, or symbiosis, and evaluate the model based on data gathered from nature.
所有阶段的学生都应该能够描绘模式、过程、现象.
- 低阶段的学生在指导之下, 能够绘制图形来描述简单的模式, 比如日升日落; 能够绘制图形来展示事物过程中的各个阶段, 比如刷牙的过程; 能够制作动画来模拟现象, 比如水汽蒸发
- 随着学生成长, 他们能够意识到电脑可以模拟现实世界, 同时他们可以使用已有的计算机模拟程序来了解现实世界的系统. 比如说, 他们可以通过修改计算机模拟程序中的参数来探索各个参数对系统的影响, 比如探索病毒扩展速度的影响参数
- 高阶段的学生应该能够从现象中抽象出互动规则来建立模拟系统, 之后根据现实世界的观察来分析和评估自己建立的模型. 比如说, 学生可以使用编程工具建立一个简单的“生产者 - 消费者”生态系统模型
- 最终, 学生能够创建更加复杂的更符合真实世界的模型, 比如, 建立“捕食 - 竞争 - 共存”的生态模型, 并根据从自然界中收集的数据, 来评估自己建立的模型